Erling Haaland has burst into the new Premier League campaign with nine goals in his opening seven appearances for Manchester City. While that tally doesn’t surpass his explosive starts of previous years — when he scored 11 goals in 2022-23 and 10 the following season — it still gives him an early three-goal cushion at the top of the Golden Boot chart.
Remarkably, none of his goals so far have come from the penalty spot. Although injuries could still shape the outcome of the race, two major factors make the Norwegian a standout contender already: the sheer number and quality of his opportunities, and the sluggish beginnings from the usual challengers.
Numbers back his dominance
Expected goals (xG) data, which reflects the historical likelihood of scoring based on the type and quality of chances, highlights the scale of Haaland’s threat. Even if he finished chances at an average rate, his current opportunities would still have produced more than double the goals of any other Premier League player so far.
Haaland has attempted 29 shots, 12 more than anyone else in the division. This volume isn’t unprecedented for him — he registered 30 at this stage last season and 34 the year before — but the quality of these chances is at a new level. His attempts have averaged an xG of 0.27 per shot, meaning similar efforts have historically been converted 27% of the time. Only Enzo Fernández, boosted by a couple of close-range finishes, has had more favourable chances among players with at least ten shots.
For comparison, Haaland’s average xG per shot at the start of the previous campaign was 0.17, illustrating how a reshaped City attack has given him clearer openings this season.
Rivals yet to find their rhythm
Fast starts are nothing new for Haaland. After seven league matches last year, he had already reached 10 goals — four more than his closest competitor at the time and six ahead of Mohamed Salah. Yet by the end of that campaign, it was Salah who topped the scoring charts with 29 goals, seven more than Haaland.
This time, the Liverpool forward has begun more slowly, scoring and generating chances at roughly half the rate he managed during the same stage a year ago. It’s his quietest start to a Premier League season so far. And he’s not alone: among last season’s top 11 scorers, Haaland’s current total matches the combined output of the other ten.
Injuries to Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen, transfer distractions surrounding Alexander Isak, and underperforming teams for Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha have all played a part in the muted competition.
European race heating up
Domestically, Haaland looks well placed to reclaim the Golden Boot, but on the continental stage, he faces fierce opposition. Harry Kane has struck 11 times already, while Kylian Mbappé has matched Haaland’s nine. The City forward leads the trio in xG and has yet to score from the spot, making his early-season output particularly striking.
However, both Kane and Mbappé are renowned for outperforming their expected goals, ensuring that the race for Europe’s Golden Shoe remains finely balanced in the early weeks of the season.
