Wales’ chances of qualifying directly for the World Cup all but disappeared after a gripping 4-2 loss to Belgium in Cardiff. Craig Bellamy’s players struck first, with Joe Rodon heading in from a corner in the seventh minute to ignite the home support.
That joy was short-lived. Ethan Ampadu was harshly punished for handball following a VAR review, and Kevin De Bruyne leveled from the spot to swing the momentum away from the hosts. From then on, Belgium seized control, punishing Wales on the counterattack.
Jeremy Doku, whose blistering form has been a feature of Manchester City’s season, tore through the Welsh defense and set up Thomas Meunier to smash the visitors into the lead. Belgium continued to carve open chances, with De Bruyne, Doku, and Leandro Trossard all failing to add a third before another penalty — this time for a clear handball by Jordan James — allowed De Bruyne to double his tally.
Substitute Nathan Broadhead briefly reignited hopes with a powerful strike, but Trossard responded almost immediately to restore Belgium’s two-goal cushion and settle the contest.
Group standings leave Wales needing a miracle
With this result, Belgium climbed above North Macedonia to the summit of Group J, sitting four points ahead of third-placed Wales and with fixtures against Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein still to come.
For Bellamy’s team to overhaul the Belgians and finish top, the group leaders would need to lose both of those remaining matches while Wales would have to win their final two — a scenario bordering on the impossible.
The Welsh may yet take maximum points, but Belgium’s position of strength makes any late twist extraordinarily unlikely. As things stand, a place in the March play-offs is almost certain for Wales. If they secure second place, they will host their semi-final; if they end up third, Nations League results guarantee them a playoff berth, though away from home. Their decisive group match is expected to be against North Macedonia in November.
Familiar flaws exploited by Doku and company
Belgium’s earlier draw with North Macedonia had offered Wales a lifeline, making victory in all three of their remaining matches essential to take the top spot. The meeting with Rudi Garcia’s side was always the sternest test.
Although no longer the dominant force they were when ranked world number one for three consecutive years after finishing third at the 2018 World Cup, Belgium still boasts an enviable attacking line-up. At the same time, their defensive fragility has been exposed, notably in a 4-3 thriller against Wales in Brussels in June.
That blend of power going forward and occasional looseness at the back was on full display again in Cardiff. Belgium were rattled early on by Wales’ intensity but flipped the match once they found space to break.
Their equalizer came against the flow of play when Meunier’s close-range strike hit Ampadu’s arm, prompting VAR intervention and De Bruyne’s first penalty. After taking the lead, Belgium dictated the rhythm, while Wales’ aggressive pressing left vast gaps at the back.
Doku repeatedly exploited that space, tormenting defenders Ben Cabango and Ben Davies — the latter winning his 100th cap — and creating the opening for Meunier’s goal with a lightning run and cross.
Play-offs: the remaining path
Belgium have now extended their extraordinary run to 46 consecutive World Cup and European Championship qualifiers without defeat. Their last loss in such a fixture came against Wales in Cardiff in 2015.
Bellamy’s men will need more nights like that famous victory if they are to navigate the playoffs successfully and secure a place at next summer’s tournament.
